My “forecast” as below was archived 22 August 2011 …

“From 2003 the effect of El Niño had passed and a slightly declining trend has been observed. This is the net effect of the 60-year cycle starting to decline whilst the 934 year cycle is still rising.”

Both cycles were going up until about 1998-2003. Now the 60 year one is declining until at least 2028, but the ~1,000 year one will still rise for up to about 100 years, maybe peaking in the 2030’s though.


Carbon dioxide has absolutely nothing to do with ANY warming. Greenhouse gases (mostly water vapor and a dash of CO2) water down the temperature gradient (making it less steep) and they do this by way of inter-molecular radiation which, as every engineer knows, has a temperature leveling effect. That effect works against the gravitationally induced temperature gradient. The latter is a direct result of the force of gravity acting upon molecules moving between collisions. The Second Law tells us entropy will tend towards a maximum – it does not say anything about temperature, because entropy is far more embracing of all kinds of internal energy, including gravitational potential energy, whereas temperature is proportional to molecular kinetic energy, nothing else.

Modern day experiments with centrifugal force have proved that Josef Loschmidt was right about a force field like gravity producing a temperature gradient. Robert Brown tried to help Anthony refute this with a pathetic article that I have refuted on the “WUWT errors” page of my website and Brown is clearly proven wrong by the experiments and evidence in all planetary tropospheres, with or without surfaces at their base.

So the “lapse rate” is not formed by rising “parcels” of air molecules. Indeed, such “parcels” (and all the Stephen Wilde nonsense) are complete figments of the imagination with nothing to stop molecules moving outside their imaginary boundaries. The gravitationally induced temperature gradient is the reason why air is cooler at higher altitudes in the troposphere. The tropopause and stratosphere do not refute this, because they are in hydrostatic equilibrium (not thermodynamic equilibrium) due to the excessive absorption of solar energy some of which makes its way downwards from the stratosphere to the troposphere through the “temperature valley” of the tropopause.

Until you all come to grips with what the Second Law entropy maximization tells us, you will understand nothing about planetary temperatures.


Absolutely EVERYONE (politician or otherwise) who believes the hoax that carbon dioxide warms the surface is gullible, usually because of an inadequate understanding of the physics involved in determining planetary surface temperatures and explaining the necessary heat transfer mechanisms.

Not a single hoaxer I’ve ever seen writing blog comments is actually able to explain with valid physics why the mean surface temperature of th Earth is what it is. They completely overlook the T^4 relationship in Stefan-Boltzmann calculations just for starters. They think that the effect of uniform flux is the same as the effect of variable flux with the same mean as the uniform flux, whereas the temperature attained by the variable flux is far, far colder. In fact it is not radiation at all which determines a planet’s surface temperature.

Yet, even though they obviously don’t understand or even know about the mechanism which does determine that surface temperature, they presume to understand what the mechanism is which they claim will lead to a warming of that surface temperature supposedly all caused by one molecule of you-know-what in each 2,500 other molecules in our atmosphere.

Oh well, if anyone happens to be interested in finding out what the real mechanism is that has been confirmed as correctly explaining all planetary temperature data, they could spend a couple of hours studying what I have spent many thousands of hours working out here and confirming with studies and experiments.